Analysis of China's Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Market in The First Three Quarters of 2021

China's economic growth slowed down in the first three quarters of 2021

In the third quarter of 2021, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, and the average growth rate in the two years fell from 5.5% to 4.9%. From the perspective of sub-items, the primary industry is basically flat, the average growth rate of the secondary and tertiary industries has decreased in two years, and the decline of the secondary industry is more obvious.

The decline of economic growth is affected by many factors:

1. Affected by the COVID-19, China's economic base was high in the early stage and low in the late stage last year.

2. In the third quarter, the COVID-19 sporadic outbreaks, extreme weather, floods and other events occurred occasionally, interrupting the smooth operation of economic activities in some areas in China.

3. The regulation and control policies on real estate and financial risks, environmental protection and production restriction have objectively led to the slowdown of economic activities.

In September 2021, the policy of power and production restriction dragged down economic activities, the price of industrial products continued to rise, superimposed with weak demand rebound, and there was great downward pressure on economic growth.

1. At the demand level: on the investment side, the issuance of special bonds has increased slightly, but there is still a time lag, and the infrastructure rebound is slow; real estate investment has entered a downward range; manufacturing industry has become the growth point of investment. On the foreign trade side, the gap between overseas supply and demand and the rise in commodity prices continued to affect the import and export of this month. With the superposition of overseas holidays, the import and export maintained a high growth rate. On the consumer side, the pandemic spread in many places has been basically effectively controlled, and the marginal travel and consumption of residents have been restored.

2. At the supply level: under the dual control policy of total energy consumption and intensity, power and production are limited in some areas, the operating rate of blast furnace, automobile all steel tires and semi-steel tires are significantly slowed down, and the industrial production is slow down.

3. In terms of price performance: CPI was 0.7% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, unchanged month-on-month. Among them, the increase of non food CPI picked up, and food CPI was the main drag on the decline. PPI rose to 10.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over last month and 1.2% month on month. Power and production restrictions continued this month, the output of high energy consuming industries decreased significantly, and the price rise of industrial products such as coal, steel and chemical industry pushed up PPI.

4. In the logistics market: under the influence of the "dual control of energy consumption" policy, the demand continues to slow down, and the downward pressure on freight rates in the logistics market gradually increases.

Analysis of China's medium and heavy duty truck market from January to September 2021

From January to September 2021, the market sales volume of medium and heavy trucks (Including semi-trailers) was 1.328 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, accounting for 41.3% of the overall truck market, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the same period in 2020 (see Figure 1)

From the monthly sales performance (see Figure 2), in the first half of 2021, due to the impact of China's VI emission upgrading, the market demand of medium and heavy duty trucks was ahead, and the sales volume remained at a high level. In the first half of 2021, the average growth rate of medium and heavy duty truck market sales was as high as 36.0%. After the switching of emission standards in July, the market demand of medium and heavy duty truck market was overdrawn seriously due to early procurement, and users were seriously on the sidelines of national VI products. Combined with the low demand for freight in the off-season, the sales volume of medium and heavy duty truck market fell precipitously. From July to September, the average sales volume of medium and heavy duty truck market decreased by 49.5%.

Development trend of medium and heavy duty truck market

It is expected that the sales volume of heavy duty truck market will remain at a relatively low level in the fourth quarter of 2021.

From: Special Purpose Vehicle

Translated by; WONDEE Autoparts

2021/12/8